The most discussed trends in healthcare are the current and looming staffing shortages. How big the shortage is, what can be done about it, and who will be affected are all being debated at water coolers across the country. Get caught up on this hot topic by reviewing the infographic below: Physician Trends – Supply and Demand.
Physician Trends – Supply and Demand
72% of physicians believe there is a physician shortage
Source: 2014 Survey of America’s Physicians by Physicians Foundation
The projected physician shortfall by 2030 is 40,800 – 104,900. Physician retirement decisions are projected to have the greatest impact on supply. If underserved populations had standard care utilization patterns, demand for physicians would rise substantially. Achieving population health goals will likely raise demand for physicians. Demographic trends continue to be the primary drivers of increasing demand from 2015 to 2030.
Source: The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand 2017 Update: Projections from 2015 to 2030 IHS Markit for Association of American Medical Colleges.
Scenarios That Could Impact Demand
- Changing demographics
- ACA expanded medical insurance coverage
- Integrated care delivery model
- expanded use of retail clinics
- Increased use of advanced practice nurses
Source: Complexities of Physician Supply & Demand: Projections from 2013 to 2025, AAMC
Primary Care physicians in rural areas are older and nearing retirement.
Source: Healthcare Workforce Distribution and Shortage Issues in Rural America January 2012
“As physicians retire, local health systems struggle to replace their core medical staff.” – Randy Gott, SVP The Advisory Board Company
Source: “Is the physician shortage a real concern? Depends on where you live,” – Advisory Board Company, Sept. 2, 2015
About 20% of Americans live in rural areas with no easy access to primary care or specialist services. Only 10% of physicians practice in rural areas.
Source: Trend Watch American Hospital Association January 2015 and Doximity
Key Physician Shortages by 2025
Medical Sub Specialists: 5,110 -12,300
Primary Care: 12,500 – 31,100
Specialists and Surgeons: 28,200 – 63,700
Source: AAMC Physician Supply and Demand through 2025 March 2015